@Article{CavalcanteFernSilv:2020:AnLuMo,
               author = "Cavalcante, Arn{\'o}bio de Mendon{\c{c}}a Barreto and Fernandes, 
                         Pedro Hugo C{\^a}ndido and Silva, Emerson Mariano da",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Estadual do Cear{\'a} (UEC)} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual do Cear{\'a} (UEC)}",
                title = "Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill. e as mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas: uma an{\'a}lise a luz da modelagem de 
                         distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de esp{\'e}cies no bioma Caatinga",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "35",
               number = "3",
                pages = "375--385",
                month = "jul/set.",
             keywords = "aquecimento global, cacto, esp{\'e}cie invasora, maxent, global 
                         warming, cactus, invasive species, maxent.",
             abstract = "As previs{\~o}es de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas no bioma 
                         Caatinga para esse s{\'e}culo s{\~a}o de aumento na temperatura 
                         do ar e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o das chuvas. A combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         desse fen{\^o}meno f{\'{\i}}sico com invas{\~o}es 
                         biol{\'o}gicas pode potencializar perdas de biodiversidade local. 
                         O objetivo do estudo foi modelar a distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         potencial de Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill., um cacto invasor no 
                         bioma Caatinga em cen{\'a}rios clim{\'a}ticos futuros e avaliar 
                         sua din{\^a}mica espa{\c{c}}o-temporal para fins de 
                         conserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do bioma. Para tal, utilizou-se do 
                         algoritmo MaxEnt, dados de presen{\c{c}}a da esp{\'e}cie-alvo e 
                         10 vari{\'a}veis ambientais. Ademais, considerou-se os intervalos 
                         de tempo futuro 2041-2060 e 2061-2080, atual 1961-1990 e os 
                         cen{\'a}rios RCP4.5 e 8.5 do CMIP5. Com a modelagem 
                         bioclim{\'a}tica e as modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas 
                         inclusas foi poss{\'{\i}}vel apontar para dois efeitos futuros 
                         sobre as atuais {\'a}reas adequadas para a presen{\c{c}}a da 
                         esp{\'e}cie-alvo invasora. O primeiro, haveria uma expans{\~a}o 
                         paulatina dessas {\'a}reas at{\'e} 2070 em RCP4.5 ou at{\'e} 
                         2050 em RCP8.5. No segundo, a partir de 2070 em RCP8.5 haveria 
                         contra{\c{c}}{\~a}o at{\'e} o final do s{\'e}culo. A 
                         expans{\~a}o da esp{\'e}cie-alvo invasora poderia ser 
                         administrada desde que, observado o componente humano que facilita 
                         a introdu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da planta no bioma e o conceito de 
                         sustentabilidade socioecon{\^o}mico e ambiental, por exemplo, 
                         cultivando-a sob condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de isolamento para fins 
                         forrageiro. ABSTRACT: The predictions of climate change in the 
                         Caatinga biome for this century are for an increase in air 
                         temperature and a reduction in rainfall. The combination of this 
                         physical phenomenon with biological invasions can increase losses 
                         of local biodiversity. The objective of the study was to model the 
                         potential distribution of Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill., an 
                         invasive cactus in the Caatinga biome in future climatic scenarios 
                         and to evaluate its space-time dynamics for the purpose of 
                         conservation of the biome. For this purpose, the MaxEnt algorithm 
                         was used, data on the presence of the target species and 10 
                         environmental variables. In addition, the future time intervals 
                         2041-2060 and 2061-2080, current 1961-1990 and the scenarios 
                         RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CMIP5 were considered. With bioclimatic modeling 
                         and climate changes included, it was possible to point to two 
                         future effects on the current areas suitable for the presence of 
                         the invasive target species. The first, there would be a gradual 
                         expansion of these areas until 2070 in RCP4.5 or until 2050 in 
                         RCP8.5. In the second, from 2070 on RCP8.5 there would be 
                         contraction until the end of the century. The expansion of the 
                         invasive target species could be managed as long as, observed the 
                         human component that facilitates the introduction of the plant in 
                         the biome and the concept of socioeconomic and environmental 
                         sustainability, for example, growing it under conditions of 
                         isolation for forage purposes.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0102-7786353001",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786353001",
                 issn = "0102-7786",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "cavalcante_opuntia.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}